This is it. The NFL regular season is over and now it’s win or go home for 8 teams. This week offers a nice mix of studs and sleepers so there will be lots of options in DFS. Let’s help make those decisions easier by looking at the quarterback matchups for Wild Card weekend.
Oakland @ Houston
Connor Cook, OAK
The Texans ranked 5th in DVOA and 3rd in points allowed. They also ranked 2nd in YPG and YPA. Cook will not only be making his first playoff start, but his first career start after Derek Carr broke his leg in week 16 and Matt McGloin suffered a shoulder injury in week 17. That leaves Cook, who has thrown just 21 passes in the NFL, to face the biggest test of his life in Houston. It’s hard to envision Cook having much success this week.
Brock Osweiler, HOU
With Tom Savage in the concussion protocol the Texans will have to turn back to their 72 million dollar man in Brock Osweiler. Osweiler was so bad this year that he lost his starting job to a quarterback that had only played in 3 games in the last 3 years. The Raiders do present a good matchup as they ranked 25th in DVOA, 10th in points allowed and allowed the 3rd most YPA. When these two teams met in week 11 in Oakland Osweiler threw for 243 yards with 1 touchdown and 1 interception. Even in DFS he offers limited upside.
Detroit @ Seattle
Matt Stafford, DET
The Seahawks ranked 13th in DVOA and 4th in points allowed. Since injuring his finger in week 13 Stafford has not been playing as well. Before the injury he had a 67.2 completion percentage with 21 touchdowns and 5 interceptions. After the injury his completion percentage dropped to 60.2 and he threw just 3 touchdowns with 5 interceptions. Now he gets a tough Seattle defense that finally looks healthy on the road. Stafford makes for a risky play this week.
Russell Wilson, SEA
The Lions pass defense is one of the worst in the league as they ranked 32nd in DVOA and 31st in points allowed. They gave up 7.5 YPA and finished behind only Cleveland with 33 touchdowns allowed. Wilson has had an up and down season by his standards but has looked much better at home. At home he averaged 8.2 YPA with 13 touchdowns, 3 interceptions and a 103.5 rating. On the road he averaged 7.3 YPA with 8 touchdowns, 8 interceptions and a 82.1 rating. With the Seahawks being 8 point favorites Wilson should be one of the top quarterback plays this week.
Miami @ Pittsburgh
Matt Moore, MIA
The Steelers ranked 12th in DVOA and 5th in points allowed. When these teams met in week 6 in Miami they held Ryan Tannehill to 252 yards passing with no touchdowns. Moore has looked good in his 3 starts since Tannehill got hurt having thrown at least 2 touchdowns in every game. With the Dolphins expected to be down big in this game Moore could be in line for some garbage time points.
Ben Roethlisberger, PIT
Roethlisberger will likely be the chalk this week against a Dolphins defense ranked 14th in DVOA and 28th in points allowed. Roethlisberger’s home/away splits are even more pronounced then Wilson’s. At home he averaged 8.5 YPA, threw 20 touchdowns with 5 interceptions and a 116.7 rating. On the road he averaged 6.7 YPA, threw 9 touchdowns with 8 interceptions and a 78.4 rating. Being a 10 point favorite at home should have Roethlisberger in line for a big day.
NY Giants @ Green Bay
Eli Manning, NYG
The Packers ranked 14th in DVOA and 25th in points allowed. Unfortunately Manning has not been very good this year and posted 199 yards with just 1 touchdown when these teams met in Green Bay in week 7. Still, against a bad Green Bay secondary he makes for a decent pivot away from the more expensive quarterbacks who will likely be higher owned.
Aaron Rodgers, GB
Rodgers went on an absolute tear to finish the season and led the Packers into the playoffs. Now he gets a home game against one of the best passing defenses in the league. The Giants ranked 4th in DVOA and 2nd in points allowed. When he faced the Giants at home in week 5 he threw for 259 yards and 2 touchdowns but also threw 2 interceptions. I expect the Giants defense to make things hard on him and will be avoiding him in DFS lineups this week.