This is it, the last week for football DFS. With only four teams playing this week differentiating yourself from the crowd will be tough. Let’s see if we can find some under the radar players who have good matchups to help us win some cash during the final week of the DFS season!
Green Bay @ Atlanta
Aaron Rodgers, Quarterback, GB
The Falcons ranked 19th in DVOA and gave up the 3rd most fantasy points to quarterbacks. Last week Russell Wilson threw for 225 yards with 2 touchdowns and 2 interceptions in Atlanta. For as good as Wilson is Rodgers is a huge step up. In the playoffs Rodgers is averaging 8.64 YPA and has 6 touchdowns versus 1 interception. His wide receiver corps is banged up but you have to think if the Packers are going to win it will be behind the arm of Rodgers. He’s the highest priced quarterback this week and for good reason.
Ty Montgomerey, Running Back, GB
The Falcons ranked 29th in DVOA and gave up the 8th most points to running backs. Still only priced at $5600 on Draftkings, Montgomerey is coming off a game which saw him register 17 touches and 2 touchdowns. While he had a hard time of it on the ground against a stout Dallas front 7, he turned 7 targets into 6 receptions for 34 yards. With Jordy Nelson unlikely to play again and DaVante Adams banged up, Montgomerey could once again see plenty of targets in the passing game. He makes for a great play at a discount in a plus matchup.
Davante Adams, Wide Receiver, GB
Adams lines up half the time on the left which means he will see a lot of Robert Alford (ranked 41st). Adams is also dealing with an ankle injury suffered late in the Divisional game against Dallas and won’t practice all week. Head coach Mike McCarthy said if it was a regular season game he wouldn’t play. With Nelson out last week Adams saw 10 targets for a 5-76-0 line. Nelson is expected to be out again this week but Adams is still a risky play with his injury.
Randall Cobb, Wide Receiver, GB
Cobb will line up against slot corner Brian Poole (ranked 39th). He saw 8 targets last week and posted a 7-62-0 line. He will likely see plenty of targets again this week with Nelson out and has a good price on draftkings. He would be the Packers wide receiver I would feel most comfortable playing this week.
Geronimo Allison, Wide Receiver, GB
Allison has filled in for Nelson and has been lining up all over. He is the third option behind Adams and Cobb and makes for a boom/bust tournament play only. If Adams ends up missing Sunday’s game Allison will get a boost and could make for a cheap play.
Jared Cook, Tight End, GB
The Falcons ranked 11th in DVOA but gave up the 6th most points to tight ends. Last week Jimmy Graham caught all 3 of his targets for 22 yards and a touchdown. Cook led the Packers in targets last week with 11 and should be in line for a lot of work again this week. Still he is the highest priced tight end and will likely be the highest owned as well. He’s almost a must play in cash games.
Matt Ryan, Quarterback, ATL
The Packers ranked 22nd in DVOA and gave up the 7th most fantasy points to quarterbacks. In their 2 playoff games they allowed 299-1-1 to Eli Manning and 302-3-1 to Dak Prescott. Ryan has had a phenomenal year and that carried over into last week’s game when he torched Seattle for a 338-3-0 line while averaging a ridiculous 9.1 YPA. Ryan is the second priced quarterback this week and could give Rodgers a run for his money as the top play. Being 5 point favorites at home adds to the appeal.
Devonta Freeman/Tevin Coleman, Running Backs, ATL
The Packers ranked 14th in DVOA and allowed the 13th fewest points to running backs. Like I said last week, however, they do well against bad running teams and poorly against good running teams. Last week against the Cowboys they allowed 5.7 YPC to Ezekiel Elliott but held a poor Giants rushing attack to 4.1 YPC. The Falcons run the ball well and use both Freeman and Coleman in the passing game. Both make good plays this week though I’d prefer Coleman just based on price.
Julio Jones, Wide Receiver, ATL
Jones will likely spend most of the game lining up against Ladarius Gunter (ranked 67th). Gunter just came off a game against Dez Bryant that saw Bryant post a 9-132-2 line. Though the matchup is good the issue with Jones is health. A report just surfaced that said the coaching staff has been treating him like a possession receiver during games and letting the other receivers run the more difficult routes. It’s hard to pay that kind of price for a possession receiver, even one as good as Jones. I will be avoiding him this week.
Mohamed Sanu, Wide Receiver, ATL
Sanu will line up against slot corner Micah Hyde (ranked 54th). Hyde was all over the field in the Divisional round playing one of his best games of the season. He did allow Cole Beasly to catch 4 of 6 targets for 45 yards though. Sanu only saw 5 targets last week and is a touchdown or bust tournament play only.
Tyler Gabriel, Wide Reciever, ATL
Gabriel has the best matchup of the week against left corner Damarious Randall (ranked 111th). Gabriel was second in targets to Jones last week and averaged 17.8 YPC. Priced at only $4900 on DraftKings he could be a great tournament play this week.
Levine Toilolo/Austin Hooper, Tight Ends, ATL
The Packers ranked 7th in DVOA and allowed 12th most points to tight ends. In last week’s Divisional round Toilolo saw 4 targets while Hooper saw just 1. Both are tough to trust this week and one will likely need a touchdown to pay off.
Pittsburgh @ New England
Ben Roethlisberger, Quarterback, PIT
While the Patriots did rank 23rd in DVOA they only allowed the 10th most fantasy points to quarterbacks. They held Brock Osweiler to a 197-1-3 line but as we know by now Osweiler is not very good. Roethlisberger will be a much tougher test for this defense. However, his struggles on the road cannot be overlooked and he was only able to put up a 224-0-1 line last week against the Chiefs. Roethlisberger is a tournament play only as he could completely bomb this week but still does offer upside.
LeVeon Bell, Running Back, PIT
The Patriots ranked 4th in DVOA and allowed the 2nd fewest points to running backs. Bell has been an absolute workhorse lately as he’s seen over 30 touches in both playoff games. When these teams met in Pittsburgh week 7 he was held to 3.8 YPC but did add 10 receptions for 68 yards. He has a safe floor but his price makes him more of a cash game play than a tournament play.
Antonio Brown, Wide Receiver, PIT
Brown is likely to be shadowed by Malcom Butler (ranked 4th) as Butler shadowed him on 36 of 40 routes in week 7. Brown did have success that week turning 11 targets into 7 receptions for 106 yards. Brown is one of the best in the game and is always a threat to have a big game, but he’s also priced as the most expensive this week. He will need one of those big games to pay off his cost.
Eli Rogers, Wide Receiver, PIT
Rogers will line up against slot corner Logan Ryan (ranked 11th). Rogers is the only other viable receiver on this offense but makes for nothing more than a cheap, low owned, boom/bust tournament play this week.
Jesse James, Tight End, PIT
The Patriots ranked 14th in DVOA and gave up just the 5th fewest points to tight ends. They allowed just 708 yards and 3 touchdowns. He’s coming off a 6 target game that saw him post 5-83-0 line however. He makes for a boom/bust tournament play only.
Tom Brady, Quarterback, NE
The Steelers ranked 12th in DVOA and allowed the 5th fewest fantasy points to quarterbacks. So far in the playoffs they have allowed just 289-1-1 to Matt Moore and 172-1-1 to Alex Smith. Granted Moore and Smith are nowhere near Brady’s level. Though Brady didn’t look as sharp as usual last week against Houston, you have to think he’ll be ready this week. When these teams met week 7 in Pittsburgh Brady posted a 222-2-0 line. I expect him to improve on that at home this week and he comes at a bargain compared to Rodgers and Ryan.
Dion Lewis/LeGarrette Blount, Running Backs, NE
The Steelers ranked 11th in DVOA but gave up the 6th most points to running backs. In the playoffs they have held Jay Ajayi to 2.1 YPC and Spencer Ware to 4.4 YPC. Lewis and Blount have been seeing close to a 50/50 split down the stretch though Lewis out-touched Blount 15-8 in the Divisional game. Coming off a huge game in the Divisional round Lewis is likely to be higher owned between the two. I would prefer Lewis in cash games but will likely stay away from both in tournaments.
Julian Edelman, Wide Receiver, NE
Edelman will matchup against slot corner William Gay (ranked 11th). Edelman has been a target monster since Rob Gronkowski’s injury and saw 13 targets in the Divisional round. The matchup is tough but Edelman makes a good pivot from the more expensive receivers as he should see double digit targets once again.
Michael Floyd/Chris Hogan, Wide Receivers, NE
Floyd and Hogan spend time on either side of the field and will see a mix of Russ Cockrell (ranked 31st) and Artie Burns (ranked 33rd). Hogan only saw 4 targets in the Divisional round while Floyd saw just 3. Niether can be played in cash games but Hogan makes an intriguing play in tournament as he is always one throw away from hitting a home run.
Martellus Bennett, Tight End, NE
The Steelers ranked 13th in DVOA and gave up the 20th most points to tight ends. Travis Kelce torched them for 15.4 YPC last week. Coming off a 1-4-0 game in the Divisional round Bennett will likely be ignored as most will be rolling out Jared Cook. He makes a great pivot from Cook in tournaments but is a risky start in cash games.