This week NASCAR heads to Atlanta Motor Speedway for the Folds of Honor QuickTrip 500. Atlanta is a 1.5 mile tri-oval speedway. The race will be run for 325 laps which will give drivers plenty of chances for place differential and laps led. Let’s take a look at drivers you can build your DraftKings lineups around. Continue reading
In part 1 I went over why you should try out best ball leagues this year. If you haven’t read it yet start there. In this part I want to cover successful draft strategy to help you win.
Like most leagues, MFL10’s only use one quarterback each week. Still you will want to draft either 2 or 3 quarterbacks. Win rates between teams drafting 2 or 3 quarterbacks are roughly even historically around 8.5%. Any other number of quarterbacks results in a win rate of 5% or less so there is really no wiggle room here. Whether I draft 2 or 3 quarterbacks depends on when I draft my first quarterback. If I go quarterback early in a draft and get a “stud” I will usually only draft 2. If I wait a while to draft my first quarterback I will draft 3 to limit my risk.
Like quarterback you will primarily want to draft 2 or 3 tight ends. Though 4 tight ends don’t have quite the win rate dropoff that 4 quarterbacks have, I feel you are giving up too much at the running back and wide receiver position. As with quarterback if I draft a stud tight end early I will primarily only draft 2 whereas if I wait on tight end I will draft a 3rd.
Again a position were you only start one each week and again we find we should be drafting just 2 or 3 defenses. You know my rule by now. If I can land a stud defense I will only draft 2 otherwise I will draft 3. I usually lean to waiting on defenses so I find myself rostering 3 a lot. One trick that takes some research but is really helpful is drafting 3 defenses in a way were you can get a home defense every week of the season. Defenses really benefit from being at home. Of course don’t pick an awful defense just to get all home games, but if you can pick 3 solid defenses that give you all home games it can help.
Now we start getting into the meat of the draft and the areas that allow for some leeway. Surprisingly teams that drafted only 3 running backs won at an 11.6% rate in 2016, by far and away the highest rate of any position. Now before you decide you’re going to only draft 3 running backs know that very few teams tried this strategy and no teams tried it prior to 2016. The sample size is small but it’s still worth making a few lineups this way if you are playing in multiple leagues.
If you don’t want to be that risky with your running backs 5 or 6 running backs offer the next highest win totals and they are almost identical. You will just have to go by how your draft is playing out to decide whether you want 5 or 6. If wide receivers are flying off the board running back will offer lots of value and you will probably want to draft 6. If the draft is pretty balanced or running back heavy you will likely want to focus more on wide receiver and just draft 5 running backs.
Wide receiver gives you the most flexibility of any position. 6, 7, 8 and even 9 wide receivers offer high win rates. How many you draft will obviously depend on how you draft the other positions. Like running back you should also pay attention to how your league is drafting. It’s always good to be zigging when others are zagging. If running backs are flying off the board draft more wide receivers. If not stick to a lower amount.
If you play in multiple leagues it is important that you pay attention to your exposure to any one player. If you play in 5 leagues you don’t want to be drafting the same players over and over. Much like playing multiple entries in a DFS tournament, you want exposure to many players. You’re going to draft busts and you’re going to draft players who get injured. By increasing your exposure you increase your chance of one lineup coming out on top. Luckily My Fantasy League keeps track of this for you, just make sure you are checking before you pick.
Putting It All Together
- For the “onesie” positions (QB, TE, DEF) draft 2 players if you take a stud early or draft 3 players if you wait on the position.
- For running backs draft either 5 or 6. Drafting 3 seems like a viable option for those who are willing to take extra risk.
- For wide receivers the sweet spot is 6-9.
- Go in with a plan but deviate if need be. Don’t follow the herd. If everyone is drafting running backs take wide receivers. If everyone is drafting wide receivers take running backs.
- Pay attention to your player exposure to increase the chances of one of your lineups taking down a league.
Questions on strategy? Something I didn’t cover? Let me know in the comments below.
My Fantasy League is the premier site to play fantasy football best ball leagues. A best ball league is a fantasy football draft only league. The rules are fairly simple. Draft a team of 20 players, each week your lineup will be set based on your best scorers at each position. The lineups consist of: QB, RB, RB, WR, WR, WR, TE, Flex (RB/WR/TE), and DEF. Scoring is full point per reception. Once you draft you’re done, there are no waivers or trades. Whoever’s team scores the most total points for the season wins. Simple right? If you’ve never played before you should. Let’s look at some of the reasons why. Continue reading
If you love drafting fantasy football teams as much as I do then you have to check out My Fantasy League (MFL) leagues (if you already haven’t). For those that don’t know, MFL leagues are draft only leagues that are done in a slow, snake style draft. They are best ball leagues meaning you draft a team of 20 players and your lineup is “set” each week based on your best performers at each position. Once your team is drafted it can never be changed. Scoring is PPR format. Below are my top 10 rankings for MFL best ball leagues. Continue reading
Last week I went over 3 players I thought would go overlooked in fantasy drafts next year. This week I am looking at 3 players I think will be drafted too high next year.
Matt Ryan, Quarterback, Atlanta
Ryan had an outstanding year by any measure. He finished 1st in yards per attempt and quarterback rating. He was 2nd in yards and touchdowns. He also finished 3rd in completion percentage and had only 7 interceptions. He was 2nd in fantasy scoring behind only Aaron Rodgers. As if all that isn’t enough he will likely take home the MVP award too. He’s played outstanding in the Falcons 2 playoffs games thus far and will likely be drafted as a top 5 quarterback next year. Still, anyone who spends an early pick on him should do so with some trepidation.
First, this year looks like a complete outlier for Ryan. Prior to 2016 his highest touchdown percentage (touchdowns per attempt) was 5.2. He blew that away with a 7.1 percentage this year. His 9.3 yards per attempt also blew away his previous career high of 7.9 which he accomplished his rookie year. If that’s not enough he also had the highest completion percentage of his career. If those numbers drop down closer to his career averages he will be in line for major regression.
Second, he is likely going to lose his offensive coordinator Kyle Shanahan after the season. Most reports have Shanahan taking the head coaching job for San Francisco though he won’t make a decision until after the Super Bowl. Not only is Shanahan a great coordinator, but this was the second year he and Ryan had together and it showed as Ryan and this offense clicked in a major way. Likely having to learn an entirely new playbook next year will be a major hurdle for this entire offense.
If Ryan regresses to his career averages, or worse, he will go down as one of 2017’s biggest busts. Don’t think it can happen? See Newton, Cam.
Tyreek Hill, Wide Receiver, Kansas City
Hill was one of 2016’s breakout stars and some are already asking if he should be a first or second round pick. He finished 61st overall in standard scoring leagues and 72nd in PPR. Most of that was on the back of 12 touchdowns as he only totaled 860 yards from scrimmage. Still as a multi-dimensional player (receiving, rushing and special teams) the hype is real and people can’t wait to draft him next year. I would caution you not to use an early round pick on him.
As a receiver he saw just 84 targets which ranked him 77th. He had less targets then players like Adam Humphries (89), Ted Ginn (94) and Anquan Boldin (99). Typically targets equal opportunities and opportunities equal fantasy points. If you just take his receiving numbers he finished as WR49 in PPR (tied with Brandon Marshall). There is no reason to think he will see a large bump in targets next year either as the Chiefs are not a pass heavy team and Jeremy Maclin still has 3 years left on his current deal.
But what about his rushing and kick return abilities you ask? He saw just 24 carries and turned that into a ridiculous 267 yards and 3 touchdowns. That is 11.1 YPC and a touchdown every 8 carries. That would make him the greatest running back humanity has ever seen by a wide, wide margin. Unless he is suddenly going to get 100+ carries next year we can expect major regression in the run department. As for kick and punt returns he finished with 3 touchdowns. While that isn’t an impossible feat only 9 players have had 4 in a season and only 1, Devin Hester, has had more than 4. Don’t expect Hill to add to his touchdown total on special teams.
If Hill regresses in the touchdown department, which seems probable, owners who drafted him early will be regretting their decision in 2017.
DeMarco Murray, Running Back, Tennessee
Murray was a draft day steal in 2016 paying off his 4th round ADP with a top 5 finish at his position in both standard and PPR leagues. Murray will likely be drafted as a top 10 running back in 2017 but he comes with some concerns.
First there is the issue of Derrick Henry. He looked good in limited work in his rookie year rushing for 495 yards, 4.5 YPC and 5 touchdowns while adding 137 yards receiving. As the season went on he carved a bigger role in the offense as well. It seems likely Henry’s role will only increase in 2017 which will hurt Murray’s value.
Murray will be entering his age 29 season in 2017. Running backs begin to decline around age 27 and often fall off a cliff. According to a study done in 2014 running backs peak at age 27, decline 15% the next year, 25% in 2 years and almost 40% by age 30. Murray had a bit of a comeback year last year (age 28) but declined as the season wore on while dealing with a toe injury. He had only 2 games with over 4 yards per carry the last 6 weeks of the season. If he continues to decline next year or battles injuries Henry could really have a big role in this offense. Regardless, Murray’s age alone is cause for concern.
After a bounce back year Murray will likely be a second or high third round pick in 2017 but has serious concerns entering the season.
Disagree with my picks? A player you feel I missed? Let me know in the comments below.
It’s never too early to start preparing for fantasy football drafts. Keeping your finger on the pulse of what is going on will help you be more prepared then your league mates and a step ahead. Below I will list strategies that will help you win your draft regardless of the league you play in. Continue reading