In part 1 I went over why you should try out best ball leagues this year. If you haven’t read it yet start there. In this part I want to cover successful draft strategy to help you win.
Like most leagues, MFL10’s only use one quarterback each week. Still you will want to draft either 2 or 3 quarterbacks. Win rates between teams drafting 2 or 3 quarterbacks are roughly even historically around 8.5%. Any other number of quarterbacks results in a win rate of 5% or less so there is really no wiggle room here. Whether I draft 2 or 3 quarterbacks depends on when I draft my first quarterback. If I go quarterback early in a draft and get a “stud” I will usually only draft 2. If I wait a while to draft my first quarterback I will draft 3 to limit my risk.
Like quarterback you will primarily want to draft 2 or 3 tight ends. Though 4 tight ends don’t have quite the win rate dropoff that 4 quarterbacks have, I feel you are giving up too much at the running back and wide receiver position. As with quarterback if I draft a stud tight end early I will primarily only draft 2 whereas if I wait on tight end I will draft a 3rd.
Again a position were you only start one each week and again we find we should be drafting just 2 or 3 defenses. You know my rule by now. If I can land a stud defense I will only draft 2 otherwise I will draft 3. I usually lean to waiting on defenses so I find myself rostering 3 a lot. One trick that takes some research but is really helpful is drafting 3 defenses in a way were you can get a home defense every week of the season. Defenses really benefit from being at home. Of course don’t pick an awful defense just to get all home games, but if you can pick 3 solid defenses that give you all home games it can help.
Now we start getting into the meat of the draft and the areas that allow for some leeway. Surprisingly teams that drafted only 3 running backs won at an 11.6% rate in 2016, by far and away the highest rate of any position. Now before you decide you’re going to only draft 3 running backs know that very few teams tried this strategy and no teams tried it prior to 2016. The sample size is small but it’s still worth making a few lineups this way if you are playing in multiple leagues.
If you don’t want to be that risky with your running backs 5 or 6 running backs offer the next highest win totals and they are almost identical. You will just have to go by how your draft is playing out to decide whether you want 5 or 6. If wide receivers are flying off the board running back will offer lots of value and you will probably want to draft 6. If the draft is pretty balanced or running back heavy you will likely want to focus more on wide receiver and just draft 5 running backs.
Wide receiver gives you the most flexibility of any position. 6, 7, 8 and even 9 wide receivers offer high win rates. How many you draft will obviously depend on how you draft the other positions. Like running back you should also pay attention to how your league is drafting. It’s always good to be zigging when others are zagging. If running backs are flying off the board draft more wide receivers. If not stick to a lower amount.
If you play in multiple leagues it is important that you pay attention to your exposure to any one player. If you play in 5 leagues you don’t want to be drafting the same players over and over. Much like playing multiple entries in a DFS tournament, you want exposure to many players. You’re going to draft busts and you’re going to draft players who get injured. By increasing your exposure you increase your chance of one lineup coming out on top. Luckily My Fantasy League keeps track of this for you, just make sure you are checking before you pick.
Putting It All Together
- For the “onesie” positions (QB, TE, DEF) draft 2 players if you take a stud early or draft 3 players if you wait on the position.
- For running backs draft either 5 or 6. Drafting 3 seems like a viable option for those who are willing to take extra risk.
- For wide receivers the sweet spot is 6-9.
- Go in with a plan but deviate if need be. Don’t follow the herd. If everyone is drafting running backs take wide receivers. If everyone is drafting wide receivers take running backs.
- Pay attention to your player exposure to increase the chances of one of your lineups taking down a league.
Questions on strategy? Something I didn’t cover? Let me know in the comments below.